January 2025 Tahoe-Truckee Real Estate Market Update

In 2024, Tahoe Truckee real estate concluded with results that closely resembled the previous year, though it followed an entirely different path to get there. A simple statistical review cannot fully capture the story of a fascinating year where the floor rose and the ceiling fell leading up to the election, only to invert afterward, culminating in several record-setting transactions near the year’s end.

Broadly, the recalibration that followed the bustling pandemic-era years continued as stubbornly high interest rates gave way to election-year malaise. The total number of residential sales slightly outperformed a sluggish prior year but came in 25% below the historic average. Nevertheless, overall pricing data was resilient with median price growing 4% while average price, tethered by several elite sales, rose by 8%.

As December typically ushers in a slowdown in activity, inventory levels are dwindling as many sellers choose to delist their properties. This seasonal trend often leads homeowners to explore ski leases or enjoy their properties for one last winter season before returning to the market with renewed hope in the spring. However, a strong start to the ski season can invigorate demand, with families likely to make spontaneous visits to their second homes before the more structured holiday gatherings take place. This kind of spontaneity, reminiscent of the joys of Tahoe’s second-home market, not only boosts immediate engagement but may also lay the groundwork for increased transactions in early 2025.

While the market continues to contend with below-average sales velocity, November revealed clear signs of progress. Luxury properties are performing exceptionally well, and with supportive economic conditions, the outlook for the Tahoe-Truckee real estate landscape remains increasingly optimistic.

The year began with tremendous promise as demand pent up from 2023 showed signs of working through the system quickly. The first several months of the year, often defined by the lowest quantity of listings, delivered the year’s highest average prices, richly rewarding savvy sellers who did not wait for summer to be on the market.

As is typical for the Tahoe market, the end of ski season began a wave of listing activity that resulted in peak inventory of 600 residential offerings; the most at any time since 2019. Instead of choices inspiring buyers, a wave of ennui overtook the market during the traditional summer buying season, weighed down by high interest rates and a typical, pre-election paralysis. During this period, entry level sales continued to move at a rapid pace, frequently drawing multiple offers. This allowed regional median price to rise as high as $1,100,000 at one point midyear, an all-time high. Meanwhile, premium properties including Tahoe lakefronts, Martis Camp, and other resort communities saw activity fall meaningfully through summers peak months.

Post election the premium market accelerated recording the largest ever lakefront value at $62,000,000 and the highest ever Truckee-based sale for $23,600,000; brokered by Tahoe Mountain Realty. Ultimately, six of the top ten sales in 2024 were recorded in the 4th quarter. Simultaneously, interest rates took a path contrary to market expectations through the second half of the year, slowing sales activity in price points more sensitive to these increases, allowing median price to settle back down to $1,085,000; lower than midyear but still the highest for a 12-month period on record.

Heading into 2025, conditions appear remarkably similar to a year ago but with the election variable now gone. A reluctant acceptance that mortgage rates will remain in the 6% – 7% is taking hold while inventory begins the year at a modest 335 residential listings; nearly identical to the number at the outset of 2024. It is likely to see a resurgence of the successful savvy seller season where sellers will be similarly rewarded with higher values while competitive listings are at their lowest. Summer is likely to see a wave of failed 2024 listings return to the market alongside a collection of new-to-the-market properties. In sum, this is likely to result in a greater number of transactions, perhaps returning to historic average, while keeping overall prices steady.

The overall draw of Tahoe real estate remains deeply embedded in the cultural fabric of Northern Californians; a remarkably resilient and financially-capable feeder market. Beyond market trends, Tahoe’s unique blend of natural beauty, outdoor recreation, and vibrant community continues to captivate buyers seeking more than just a home — but a lifestyle. This assures that demand over the long term will remain steady across market conditions.

Best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2025.